Investment process
How we think about risk
Our process continuously reads the market regime (liquidity, credit, monetary policy, market positioning, among others) and translates that reading into a score that sizes the portfolio's exposure. In Risk ON, the portfolio is long and balanced across regions and asset classes; in Risk OFF, exposure falls, and in clearly bearish scenarios, short positions are added. We follow a rigorous decision-making process that draws on data and information from multiple sources around the world until we reach our ideal portfolio, in a constant cycle of gathering information, analyzing it, and building the portfolio.
Decision route
Risk-regime reading
A proprietary model to identify risk regimes.
Risk budget
Published risk budget, mandatory stop exposure, short cycles.
Execution
Liquid global markets, CDI as the benchmark.
How we do it
A proprietary process that reads the market regime
Continuous monitoring
Liquidity, credit, monetary policy, positioning, and market technicals, consolidated into a continuous score across market regimes.
We size the fund's position according to the scenario
The regime reading gradually sets the portfolio's gross exposure and direction.
Short cycles
A short horizon means a low cost to exit, reassess, and rebuild.
Gross exposure by regime
The strategy operates in the world's most liquid markets (indices, G10 currencies, metals, rates, and crypto via futures and ETFs), which means the process doesn't depend on a narrow inefficiency that runs out as the fund grows.
Risk culture
We protect our investors' capital, with rules in writing
Risk budget vs. results (trailing 12 months)
Each results band relative to CDI compresses the allowed exposure limit. The fund can only take on riskier positions after results have already consolidated.
100% of the maximum exposure limit
Results ≥ 100% of CDI over the trailing 12 months
70% of the maximum exposure limit
Below 100% of CDI over the trailing 12 months
60% of the maximum exposure limit
Below 50% of CDI over the trailing 12 months
50% of the maximum exposure limit
Negative results over the trailing 12 months
Losses incurred by the fund lead to an immediate reduction in exposure limits. The goal is to protect investors' capital by restricting the manager's activity as soon as results begin to pull back. This loss limit is deliberately low, a standard of rigor rarely seen in the fund industry and one of Atol's core differentiators.
Exposure-compression triggers
Triggers comparing the current share value against the best point of the 10-day moving average compress exposure limits to 50% of the table within two days, no exceptions.
Results buy risk budget
Exposure limits follow the table to the left, based on the result over the trailing 12-month window.
Maximum tolerated loss
Adding up compression triggers, calculation lag, and budget resets, the framework defines a maximum tolerated loss below the best point of the last 10 days, documented in our Risk Policy.
Risk budget reset
A maximum of 3 budget rebuilds per year; from the 4th on, only with Committee deliberation, on record. Beyond the annual limit, there's a long-term trigger: if the accumulated loss from the fund's all-time high water mark reaches 10%, the Committee is automatically convened.
Full rules in the Risk Policy v1.0.